It started badly. A strike in the 30th second from Shannon Cole; another one from Brendan Gan three minutes later. Sydney 2-0 up.

But that just set the stage for one of the greatest comebacks in Melbourne’s history. Sydney may feel robbed, but Melbourne absolutely deserved the three points.

The turning point? This, undoubtedly:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XTsb4315GVU[/youtube]

Melbourne played with an intensity we rarely see. For once, Merrick’s substitutions had the desired impact, as the fresh legs of Ney Fabiano, Matthew Kemp and Nick Ward tore Sydney apart. Ward’s goal will deservedly go down in MVFC history as one of our finest, but Fabiano had a bigger impact. Here is a striker who can run at players, cross the ball and hold it. Three weeks in a row, he has come off the bench and scored. The only question is whether to keep him as an impact substitute, or give him a start.

While it’s hard to feel anything but euphoric about the game, two things bothered me: Melbourne’s habit of dropping intensity and giving up possession far too easily when it takes the lead; and Kevin Muscat, who just about made me have a heart attack with his antics in front of the Melbourne goal.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GhqhE_7eT0k[/youtube]

Queensland Roar won its game against Wellington Phoenix, meaning we’re still in third place. In fact, all the top 4 sides won their matches, so the standings remain exactly as they were last week. With back-to-back matches against Queensland Roar and Adelaide United coming up, it’s well and truly make-or-break time.

After three disastrous away games, the Melbourne Victory returns home for its round 17 clash against Sydney FC. Sydney’s recent form has also been far from spectacular, with a devastating 4-1 loss against the Perth Glory last week forcing Sydney down another notch on the ladder. Melbourne didn’t do much better against the Newcastle Jets, finishing 4-2.

Melbourne and Sydney: two out of form sides who both desperately need a win. Sound familiar?

Hoping to spark his team, Ernie Merrick appears keen on shifting Kevin Muscat into midfield, paving the way for Sebastian Ryall to perhaps enter the squad. It may not be such a bad move: Muscat has made some uncharacteristic – but severe – errors in defence this year, and a central role should allow him to focus on leading the team through the middle. Muscat’s tenacity and physical style may complement Jose Luis Lopez’ more fluid abilities.

The round 9 incarnation of this fixture ended in a 0-2 win for Sydney FC, which saw Melbourne tumble down to third. A loss this week could be far more disastrous, with the Central Coast Mariners (4th), Wellington Phoenix (5th) and Sydney FC (6th) all able to overtake it on the ladder. Granted, Melbourne has a game in hand, but dropping from the top 4 would be a terrible psychological blow at this point of the season.

But Sydney’s poor form gives some cause for optimism. John Aloisi has only scored once since opening his scoring account in the round 9 fixture, and made a mess of a few sitters last week. There’s plenty of pressure on him to step up, and John Kosmina must be awfully close to having his contract suspended. Let’s hope we show him the door.

My tips for the weekend:

• Newcastle Jets to lose to Central Coast Mariners: The Mariners lost a critical game against Wellington last week, while the Jets sliced right through Melbourne. But this week I’m tipping a reversal of fortunes for both sides.  
• Perth Glory to beat Adelaide United: There’s no small measure of optimism to this tip. A solid win last week for Perth, but this game against Adelaide is going to be huge. I’m foreseeing lots of goals ending in a narrow victory for the hosts.
• Melbourne Victory to make a mockery of Sydney FC: Unlike some people, I can’t tip against my own team. One of these two sides is going to end its drought, and I reckon Melbourne can do it – and exact their revenge on Sydney for that round 9 loss.
• Queensland Roar to beat Wellington Phoenix: Queensland have surged to second place, while the Phoenix have worked themselves to the edge of the four. Expect a game with plenty of fireworks, but a win for the hosts.

I may not be the world’s greatest strategist, but Ernie Merrick’s substitutions on Friday night made no sense to me. Perhaps I’m missing the big picture. But if you’re down two goals at half time, then concede a third five minutes in, surely that’s an ideal time to bring on some fresh attacking legs? No?

Instead, Merrick waited until after the 60th minute (his trademark time to make a substitution), after Melbourne had finally scored. But by then, the Jets had already scored a fourth, and Melbourne needed a goal every five minutes or so to get anything out of the game. A tall order for any side.

The game started well enough. Newcastle had practically no attacking momentum, as Melbourne created chance after chance. An Archie Thompson goal was disallowed for his being offside – a decision shown to be wrong by the replays. But you still got the feeling that it was just a matter of time before Melbourne finished one of their chances and took the lead.

It didn’t turn out that way. Newcastle, in what seemed to be their first attack of the game, opened their scoring when Matt Thompson headed in what would be the first of three he’d score. As soon as the Jets took the lead, they also grabbed the momentum. Suddenly, it was all Newcasle, with Melbourne obviously on the back foot.

It was a game that ran away from us. Newcastle didn’t start strong, but they surged after they scored. Trailing, Melbourne looked stale. As has so often been the case this season, they looked clueless in the final third, a team that’s worked out how to pass it around the box but can’t figure out how to get a shot off.

The loss has made Melbourne slip below the Queensland Roar on goal difference, while Wellington and Central Coast trail by a point (though they have both played one more game than Melbourne and Queensland). Adelaide United, which had another bye this week, remains at the top of the table with a game in hand.

The Newcastle Jets will attempt to inject pride (and a small dose of hope) into their cascading A-League campaign tonight, as they meet second-placed Melbourne Victory. But it’s a critical game for the visitors, who are a point behind Adelaide and need a win to regain the lead.

Adding to the pressure for Melbourne are the Queensland Roar, who are on equal points, and the Central Coast Mariners, who trail the Victory and Roar by a point. It’s very tight in there, but it’s deceptive: Melbourne have a game in hand.

Newcastle’s recent form has been disastrous. The Jets haven’t won since Round 8 – incidentally, that was against Melbourne. On that occasion, Newcastle were clearly the better team, but have struggled to maintain decent form since them. They now sit on 12 points at the bottom of the table, with 7th placed Perth Glory on 16.

Archie Thompson is a 50% chance to play tonight, while Ernie Merrick has Evan Berger and Carlos Hernandez back at his disposal. It’s a full strength squad bar one, but that one player missing is arguably the most significant cog in the system. A fortnight ago against Perth Glory, Melbourne had chances but didn’t take them; the week before that, Thompson had an off game and Melbourne looked pathetic in the final third as a result. Archie’s presence and form remains a key component of Melbourne’s set-up.

My tips for the weekend:

• Wellington Phoenix to beat Central Coast Mariners. Two sides with everything to play for, but the Phoenix are at home and in desperate need of a win. An embarrassing loss and a draw last week have it on 19 points, chasing the 4th placed Mariners by 3 points. They’ve beat the Mariners before, and I think they’ll do it again tonight.
• Newcastle Jets to collapse before the Melbourne Victory. Both have had poor games lately, but a week’s rest and an almost full squad give Melbourne no excuses. They need a win, and I think they’ll get it.
• Sydney FC to draw with Perth Glory. Perth need a win to keep their finals chances alive, and Sydney need one to get back into the top 4. I don’t think either will get what they need.

The Melbourne Victory faltered on the road again, this time going down to a bottom-of-the-table Perth Glory side who kept their season alive with a 3-1 win. The loss, combined with a spectacular 6-1 defeat of the Wellington Phoenix by Adelaide United, forces Victory down to 2nd, trailing Adelaide by a point.

Melbourne’s performance was a cut above the previous week, with the Victory controlling the game for most of the second half. But two first-half goals in quick succession from Perth’s Ivorian striker, Eugene Dadi, gave the home side a strong lead, which they defended tenaciously. The Victory pressed hard and eventually pulled one back with an enterprising (and somewhat lucky) run by Ney Fabiano in the 55th minute; but after enduring all the pressure, Adriano Pellegrino fired in a wonderful goal in the 78th minute to crush the Victory.

Despite the scoreline, it was a tight game. Perth took their chances, while Melbourne didn’t take theirs. Tom Pondeljak missed a sitter, and Rodrigo Vargas narrowly edged the ball over the crossbar with his header. But football doesn’t reward possession or near-misses, only goals.

Archie Thompson had picked up a knock at training the day before, putting him out of action. But why did Merrick decide to put him on the bench if he didn’t intend to play him? Last I heard, Merrick was planning to take Evan Berger with the squad to Perth, so why he wasn’t on the bench instead of Archie is beyond me.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gFkfJzDZLSc[/youtube]

The second-third of the A-League season wraps this weekend, with Melbourne meeting last-placed Perth Glory.

It’s another away game for the Victory, who have only had one at home in the last four matches. But Melbourne will have a week’s rest after this, thanks to Adelaide United’s Club World Cup schedule.

Ernie Merrick yesterday tipped that he would start Grant Brebner, whose form (and fitness) has been diminished over the past month. The Scotsman has started the last two matches but been substituted off at half time. Evan Berger, meanwhile, appears to be ready to return from his injury. I for one have missed the youngster, who added grit and determination to the side.

Merrick has also indicated that Carlos Hernández will be played off the bench, amid concerns that the Costa Rican isn’t quite ready to play a full 90 yet. Maybe so, but I hope Ernie gives Hernández more than 15-20 minutes to work his magic. Hernández made a belated appearance last week in which he clearly lifted Melbourne’s game, but it was too late. It would be great to see Hernández given a full 45 minutes.

Last week, I tipped a win for the Glory, but they were robbed of three points by a late equalizer from the boot of Sasho Petrovski. That draw adds to the pressure this week, as Glory coach David Mitchell has already declared that this is a must-win affair for his side. Perth are on 12 points, well clear of the 18 it currently requires to be in the top 4.

But desperate teams are dangerous, something which Melbourne must be wary of. While we can dream of another 4-0 thrashing, we should realistically expect something much more difficult. The key will be scoring early and putting Perth on the backfoot. The Glory are confidence starved and seem to fall apart when they’re a goal or two down.

My tips for the weekend:

• Adelaide United to draw with Wellington Phoenix. A fourth win in a row for the Phoenix would be truly something; Adelaide are looking very fragile at the moment; but I think the home side will dig in and find themselves a goal or two, enough to draw with Wellington.
• Central Coast Mariners to beat Queensland Roar. This is a critical game for both sides, who are fourth and third, separated by a point. Queensland have the edge on the ladder, but I’m tipping the home side will overtake them.
• Perth Glory to be kept on 12 points, as the mighty Melbourne Victory put at least 2 past them. If Melbourne can take the lead early on (and maintain it), they’ll be halfway there.
• Newcastle Jets to beat Sydney FC. Newcastle desperately need a win this weekend, as they are stranded on the bottom with Perth. Sydney’s poor form is starting to catch up with it, as it has sunk to 6th place. I expect that poor form to continue this weekend, with Newcastle getting the three points they need.

Despite the efforts of the dozen Melbourne fans trying to inspire the players to lift their game against the Phoenix, it was the home support that came away cheering.

Wellington looked the livelier side for most of the game, especially after they equalised within a minute of Danny Allsopp’s opener in the first half. With both sides on a goal, the Phoenix always looked the more likely to break the deadlock. And they did, courtesy of Shane Smeltz.

After Allsopp’s goal, I don’t recall any Victory players managing a shot on target until the final twenty minutes. Thompson had a poor, frustrating game, while the midfield comprised of Celeski, Pondeljak and Brebner failed to control the play. Fred, in his second game for the Phoenix, gave Wellington the spark it needed.

Ernie Merrick’s half-time substitution, Nick Ward for Grant Brebner, failed to give Melbourne the spark it needed. That spark didn’t come until Carlos Hernández was eventually given a run halfway through the second half. Hernández didn’t solve all of Melbourne’s problems, but he had an obvious impact, exercising control and providing stronger support for the attackers.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vr-PuzJbmiY[/youtube]

It was a disappointing loss, but the other results on the weekend (three draws) mean that Melbourne has retained its lead, albeit shortened to just two points. Wellington is now in fifth place, tied on points with the Central Coast Mariners. The Perth Glory, next week’s opponent, gave up a lead in the last minute against the Mariners, turning this Saturday’s game into a must-win for the Glory.

I’m here in Wellington looking forward to tomorrow night’s clash between the Melbourne Victory and Wellington Phoenix.

I can’t wait.

Here we have the Victory, with a solid three point lead at the top of the table, playing the Phoenix, who scored back-to-back wins for the first time in their history. Granted, they won the second against a 9-man Newcastle Jets side, but the wins have brought them to 15 points, just two behind fourth-placed Central Coast Mariners. A win tomorrow night and some lucky results in the other fixtures this weekend, and the Phoenix may be in the top 4. Another first?

What’s more, they have Fred to do it with. Fred, the little Brazilian who was so sorely missed after he left the Melbourne for greener pastures in the MLS, has signed on with Wellington for a six-week stint. If he can ignite the Phoenix the way he did the Victory in season 2, a finals spot is well within grasp of the New Zealanders.

Melbourne, meanwhile, has a commanding lead at the top of the table but has three matches away from home, against the current numbers 6, 7 and 8 on the table. The Victory has already proved itself to be a class above two of its upcoming opponents (5-0 against the Newcastle Jets and 4-0 against the Perth Glory), and I believe that if they perform as well as they have been, they will be able to pick up wins against all three.

But tomorrow night is shaping up to be a very interesting match. How much will Fred invigorate his new A-League side? Will the Victory defence be able to contain his threat, as well as the ever-dangerous Shane Smeltz?

My tips for the weekend:

• Melbourne Victory to thump the Wellington Phoenix. I’m tipping a two goal win, but expect goals from both teams.
• Sydney FC to lose to Queensland Roar. Sydney appear to be in all sorts of trouble at the moment, and if Queensland can echo last week’s second half performance against the Glory, they’ll take home three points.
• Perth Glory to beat Central Coast Mariners. Perhaps not the wisest tip, but it’s coming down to the wire for the Glory. They’ve put in a few good games this season, and I’m hoping they have one this weekend again.
• Newcastle Jets to draw with Adelaide United. Last year’s Grand Final winners are propping up the table with Perth and need a win, but I don’t see it happening this weekend.

ps. Any fellow Victory fans in Wellington to see the game, let me know. I’ll buy you a beer.

Melbourne played what was arguably its best game of the season last night, fighting back from a goal behind to beat Adelaide United 3-2 and reclaim first place.

After a series of bad results and without Archie Thompson, Ney Fabiano and Carlos Hernández, the Victory were undoubtedly the underdogs last night. But they produced a great performance and certainly deserved the win.

It looked like it was going to be another bad night when Cristiano dived in the box and won a penalty from Matthew Breeze. Travis Dodd tucked the goal away, putting Adelaide up, against the run of play.

Melbourne had looked the more likely side to break through up until then, and continued to dominate the game after going down a goal. Matthew Kemp was particularly good in the first half, pushing forward with strong runs against his former club.

The Victory came out of the break and were again the dominant side. It paid off after 5 minutes, when Cristiano needlessly (some might stay stupidly) knocked Rodrigo Vargas down in the Adelaide box. Kevin Muscat made no mistake from the spot.

Cassio scored with a brilliant free kick in the 68th minute (brilliant kick, but why didn’t Theo try to save it?). Again, Melbourne down against the run of play. But credit to them, they kept going. Evan Berger in particular played a magnificent game. He doesn’t have silky technique, but I admire his speed and commitment. That paid off last night, when he was brought down by Robert Cornthwaite in the box, giving Melbourne its second penalty. Again, Kevin Muscat made no mistake.

(Why didn’t Cornthwaite get another yellow? A foul like that in the box certainly deserves it. Adelaide should have been down to ten men.)

Back to 2-2, Melbourne still kept going. Then, in the 84th minute: a mad scramble in the Adelaide box; a shot stopped by an Adelaide defender’s hand (another thing missed by Breeze); a bicycle kick by Tommy Pondeljak, missing the target but landing nicely for Billy Celeski, who nudged it in to get his first goal for the Victory and put Melbourne ahead at long last.

Excellent stuff. Even after going up, Melbourne did not resort to ultra-defensive tactics, as they have been prone to do in the past. If Danny Allsopp had made more of it, he could even have made it 4-2 in the final minute. But alas, 3-2 suffices. A win for Melbourne, back to the top of the league – and they’ll remain so if Sydney FC doesn’t win tonight.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YwAEhA7tmIk[/youtube]

***

MVFCBlog will be a bit quieter in November, as I’m heading to New Zealand for a four week holiday. You know how it goes. I will be at the Wellington vs Melbourne game on the 28th though. If you’re there, send me an email.

Meanwhile, check out some of the blogs in the sidebar if you’re looking for a blogger’s perspective on the A-League.

The Melbourne Victory have their backs up against the wall as they prepare to play current front-runner Adelaide United in Hindmarsh Stadium tomorrow night.

The last time these two met, Melbourne went to 10 men but still managed to come away with a win. In the five matches after that, however, the Victory’s fortunes have dropped. After teetering at the top of the table for the last few weeks, Melbourne finally dropped from first last week.

In contrast, Adelaide United are riding high after topping the A-League and reaching the final of the Asian Champions League. Despite the extra matches, they’ve only sacrificed two points in the last four rounds.

We already knew Melbourne would miss Archie Thompson and Ney Fabiano tomorrow, but Carlos Hernández’ injury (which could keep him out for a month) further diminishes Ernie Merrick’s attacking options. Now would be a perfect time for Nathan Elasi to make his A-League debut… but he’s away on Young Socceroos duty. Instead, Matthew Theodore has been called up from the youth team to potentially make an appearance off the bench.

Adelaide aren’t without their injury problems, with both Eugene Galekovic and Paul Reid unavailable. But they have a squad with depth which has been tried and tested over the past month. And so far, weariness has not made them skip a beat.

My tips for the weekend:

• Adelaide United to lose to Melbourne Victory. Backs against the wall or not, I still feel obliged to believe we can do it. And we certainly can. Perth Glory almost beat Adelaide last week, but gave it away in the last ten minutes.
• Sydney FC to draw with Central Coast Mariners. Two sides coming off a win, I can’t pick a winner between these two.
• Newcastle Jets to beat Queensland Roar. This is an important game for both sides, with Queensland perched on the edge of the top 4 and Newcastle fighting to stay in the race. Newcastle need the win, and I think they’ll get it.
• Perth Glory to beat Wellington Phoenix. They’re 7th and 8th, both beaten last week, but recent form has seen an improvement for both sides. I’m picking a Perth win.